As celebration coordinator, I question myself every day about re-opening Pebble. Not that I am solely responsible for making that decision. But I am the most visible of those involved. So, I’m feeling pressure, real or imagined, to get on with it and open the Red Barn again.
We’ve been through a lot already. We’re tired and bored and lonely. I wish it were over as much as you, but all the wishes in the world count for nothing compared with the facts and best estimates of science. According to a recent article in the New York Times, “The next six months could make what we have experienced so far seem like just a warm-up to a greater catastrophe.” Do we want to open with that message ringing in our ears?
I found that New York Times article on Ann Brentano’s FB page. (Thanks for the posting, Ann!) It is headlined, “Here’s How to Crush the Virus Until Vaccines Arrive/To Save Lives and the Economy, We Need Another Lockdown.” The writers are Michael T. Osterholm and Neel Kashkari. Dr. Osterholm is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Mr. Kashkari is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Kashkari addressed economic recovery, which I left out of this writeup. Here are the main points.
-Our failed response has led to the coronavirus presently spreading faster than our ability to control with face masks, tests and tracing.
-The only way to gain control is to start all over with a new lockdown.
-We must reduce the present 17 new cases per 100,000 people per day to less than 1 new case per 100,000 people per day.
-Bottom Line: “In just weeks we could almost stop the viral fire that has swept across this country over the past six months and continues to rage out of control. It will require sacrifice but save many thousands of lives.”
-How did the US miss the boat? We gave up on our lockdowns. Around the world, many countries stuck with it and found that they could begin to recover once they had reduced new cases to less than one per day per 100,000 people. Beyond that point, control was possible with a combination of testing, contact tracing, case isolation and extensive monitoring of positive tests.
I want to open the church. I want us all to be together again. But, if we began meeting at Pebble again and someone died because of Covid 19, I would be horrified. Wouldn’t you?
I’m sticking with science.
Rev. Larry
